Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 3.523479 4.237713 5.036160 5.991435 7.099593 8.340839 9.832432
2025-03-16 2.489519 3.392316 4.510027 5.981157 7.850335 10.128547 13.095670
2025-03-23 1.848407 2.808224 4.105110 5.953347 8.481639 11.776253 16.342915
2025-03-30 1.354187 2.275806 3.624533 5.687825 8.697861 12.850557 18.915195
2025-04-06 1.072351 1.971972 3.384211 5.680607 9.217701 14.334098 22.131965
2025-04-13 0.857102 1.716354 3.156528 5.632986 9.638610 15.681201 25.241455
2025-04-20 0.754530 1.625586 3.168859 5.949159 10.630487 17.936876 29.848418
2025-04-27 0.654035 1.513665 3.120724 6.147452 11.439957 19.966060 34.255682
2025-05-04 0.584108 1.444167 3.132779 6.442836 12.428544 22.344004 39.368061
2025-05-11 0.489478 1.300481 2.979027 6.412089 12.843112 23.809532 43.112537
2025-05-18 0.392776 1.127277 2.734851 6.171854 12.848849 24.576802 45.747453
2025-05-25 0.310479 0.965140 2.482083 5.873304 12.703926 25.056236 47.909460
2025-06-01 0.262472 0.877776 2.378940 5.871015 13.132386 26.601579 52.057993
2025-06-08 0.223733 0.804366 2.294155 5.895345 13.614801 28.282309 56.564716
2025-06-15 0.189148 0.732203 2.198235 5.880087 14.012606 29.832680 60.937281
2025-06-22 0.149549 0.630940 2.008594 5.621571 13.874452 30.353494 63.457206
2025-06-29 0.127060 0.577425 1.931952 5.615903 14.269148 31.923801 68.018876
2025-07-06 0.106785 0.524062 1.844337 5.569273 14.566055 33.317537 72.325688
2025-07-13 0.100225 0.519901 1.896616 5.882555 15.699233 36.465316 80.185672
2025-07-20 0.090936 0.501683 1.903713 6.079001 16.581223 39.155031 87.296395
2025-07-27 0.084899 0.494986 1.944992 6.371573 17.712972 42.431145 95.735722
2025-08-03 0.072394 0.454729 1.871642 6.341130 18.072330 44.106508 101.065839
2025-08-10 0.058003 0.398428 1.732122 6.103205 17.901525 44.634958 104.099218